Kenya’s power grid is under mounting strain, with frequent outages disrupting households, businesses, and critical institutions.
Reliability indices from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) reveal systemic failures that far exceed regulatory targets, stressing the urgent need for infrastructure upgrades and operational reforms.
EPRA’s latest biannual industry data for the financial year 2024/25 paints a grim picture, showing that consumers endured an average of 3.570 interruptions between July and December 2024, more than double the regulator’s target of 1.63 interruptions. Outage durations were equally troubling, with the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) at 9.153 hours, nearly triple the acceptable limit of 3.25 hours. Restoration times, as measured by the Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI), stood at 2.558 hours, slightly exceeding the target of 2.45 hours.
Energy Cabinet Secretary (CS) Opiyo Wandayi has warned that the power crisis is worsened by the moratorium imposed on Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) since April 2023, arguing that it hampers negotiations for affordable rates with Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
“Even in cases where we have received better revised proposals, the moratorium has impeded every effort for negotiations,” Wandayi stated during a retreat with lawmakers in Naivasha. He emphasized that the inability to secure new agreements is restricting critical investments in generation capacity, further straining the grid. Principal Secretary (PS) Alex Wachira reinforced this position, stating that declining contracted capacity from retired power plants and ageing infrastructure has contributed to supply shortfalls that could worsen without new generation capacity.
The economic impact of unreliable electricity is escalating. Households are compelled to invest in costly backup solutions such as solar panels and diesel generators, while businesses grapple with operational disruptions and equipment damage. Manufacturers report increased production costs due to stoppages, while financial institutions and data centers are diverting significant resources toward alternative power sources to safeguard operations.
Large-scale enterprises are increasingly turning to captive power generation, which now accounts for 574.6 MW—15.04 per cent of Kenya’s total installed capacity. Solar photovoltaic systems dominate this shift due to their long-term cost savings, though upfront capital remains a hurdle for smaller entities. Biomass and hybrid solutions are also gaining traction as businesses seek alternatives to mitigate grid instability.
Even as KP and the government push forward with infrastructure upgrades to stabilize supply, the scale of demand growth presents significant challenges. The Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP) connected 198,535 new customers in six months, with a target of reaching 10 million households by 2025.
The Ministry’s 2024-43 Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) envisages that electricity demand will grow at an average of 6 per cent annually over the 20-year horizon, fueled by industrial expansion and new consumer connections, adding strain to substations and transmission lines.
Meanwhile, Kenya Power (KP) is struggling to keep up, with demand hitting a record 2,316 MW in February 2025. “The demand is expected to reach 2,871MW in 2028 and 8,152 by 2043. To meet this growing demand, various power generation projects that have been earmarked for development in the LCPDP need to be developed, and storage solutions such as pumped hydro storage and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) to provide ancillary services towards enhancing grid security needs to be considered,” Wachira told the lawmakers.
Consumer advocacy groups are demanding accountability, including rebates for prolonged outages, while stakeholders emphasize the need for urgent investment in smart grid technologies such as automated fault detection systems and smart metering to enhance response times and outage management.
Despite ongoing efforts, KP’s ageing transmission lines continue to hinder progress. Allegations of sabotage and inadequate preventive maintenance further complicate the situation, with widespread blackouts plunging the country into darkness multiple times in recent years.
The Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited (KETRACO) is enhancing Kenya’s transmission capacity through projects like the Kimuka substation, Narok-Bomet interconnector, and Mariakani substation, improving grid redundancy and efficiency. The Nanyuki underground cable project, backed by the African Development Bank, aims to strengthen central Kenya’s power system.
To address supply challenges, the government is investing in 113 solar mini-grids through a Sh10 billion World Bank-funded initiative targeting off-grid communities. With 90 per cent of the grid powered by renewables, Kenya is expanding solar and wind projects while preparing to launch the East African Power Market in 2025, positioning itself as a regional energy hub.
