Rain is expected across much of Kenya from 9 to 16 October 2026, the Kenya Meteorological Department has said in its weekly forecast, with isolated storms possible and totals likely to vary sharply.
The outlook covers a broad arc of the country. Rain is forecast in Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale. In the west and the lake basin it covers Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma, Kisumu, Kisii, Nyamira, Migori, Siaya and Homa Bay. The Rift Valley list includes Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Nakuru, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia. In the highlands and east of the Rift, the department named Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia and Nyandarua.
A lighter rainfall duration is expected in Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Narok and Nairobi, where rain is expected only in some parts. The department says rainfall distribution will not be even, and isolated storms can drop a week’s rain on one region while the next stays dry.
This week sits inside a forecasted wetter October. The department’s monthly forecast, published ahead of the October–December season, gives above-average rainfall a higher probability in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera and parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir. Above-average rain is also expected across much of the south-east, Nairobi and the central highlands, including Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Kitui, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Nyandarua and Nyeri.
Western and Rift Valley counties are closer to near-average or above-average. The same bulletin warns that heavy rainfall events are likely in several parts of the country. October is already a high-rainfall month in places such as Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Murang’a, Embu and Busia, where seasonal totals often exceed 200 millimetres.
The week ahead is therefore less a surprise than a first test of systems built for the short rains.
Preparedness is furthest along on paper at the national level, and thinnest where water actually collects. On 17 September, government spokesperson Charles Owino Wahong’o said ministries, counties and humanitarian partners had strengthened multi-agency plans, were mapping flood-prone areas, and were telling people on riparian land to move before the rains intensified.
The National Disaster Operations Centre has been running coordination drills with traffic police, including a command-post exercise aimed at Nairobi, where a single storm can close underpasses and the southern bypass. Director Col (Rtd) David Samoei has said the centre still runs a 24-hour desk and a rapid assessment team, but he has also warned that rains on the scale of 1997 would overwhelm current arrangements.
What To Expect As Kenya Met Warns Of Rainfall
The National Disaster Management Authority envisaged in the new disaster law is not yet in place. NDOC is still operating as a directorate.
The coast is the clearest case of pre-positioning. On 8 October, the Interior Ministry said the Kenya Coast Guard Service was moving assets into high-risk zones before the expected El Niño peak. Named sites include the Tana River Delta and Garsen, the Lamu archipelago, Vanga and Shimoni in Kwale, Tudor and Port Reitz creeks in Mombasa, Kilifi Creek and the Sabaki River. Those are the counties on this week’s wet list. A storm over Lamu or the delta does not need a month of rain to cut roads and isolate islands.
Western Kenya has a different problem. Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Kisumu and Homa Bay already sit on saturated lake and river systems. Nandi, Kericho, Bomet and the Elgeyo escarpment add landslide risk once storms hit steep farms. Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu are grain producing counties. Preparedness here is less about boats and more about culverts, market access and clearing the usual choke points on the Kisumu–Busia and Webuye corridors before the first heavy night.
Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit and Garissa are coming out of drought stress. Last week, China gave Kenya about Sh130 million for drought mitigation, and the same counties are now on the wet list. County teams that spent the dry months on water trucking now need drainage, cholera surveillance and a plan for camps that flood.
Nairobi, Kiambu, Kajiado and the central highlands are where small storms become national news. Nairobi is only on the “some parts” list this week, but the monthly outlook is wetter, and past seasons have shown that blocked drains in Mathare, South C and the industrial area fail before the river gauges do.
A national health assessment cited by relief agencies rated overall flood preparedness at 54 percent, with 18 counties and about 5,660 health facilities in at-risk areas. Opening shelters, moving people off riparian plots, and keeping clinics stocked once roads go.
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